Monthly Economic Review
by the Congressional
Task Force on Manufacturing

Updated Daily as New Data Become Available

Manufacturing Production
Manufacturing output rose 0.6 point in October after a decline of 3.7 percent in September. The durable goods sector decreased 1.8 percent with declines widespread among its components. In addition to a particularly large drop in primary metals, which was due to lower production of iron and steel, decreases also occurred in most other durable goods industries. Only electrical equipment, appliances, and components moved up. The nondurable goods sector rose 3.1 percent after a decline of 4.5 percent in September. The output of petroleum and coal products jumped 9.9 percent as refinery output recovered from the post-hurricane levels. Gains were also recorded in food, beverage, and tobacco products and in chemicals. However, the indexes for textile and roduct mills, apparel and leather, paper, printing, and plastics and rubber products all declined.

July
2008

Manufacturing Employment
The manufacturing sector lost 90,000 jobs in October. Approximately 27,000 aerospace workers in the transportation equipment industry were off payrolls in October due to a strike; otherwise, factory job losses were similar to the prior 2 months. Within the durable goods sector job losses occurred in fabricated metal products (-11,000), furniture and related products (-10,000), motor vehicles and parts (-9,000), wood products (-7,000), and computer and electronic products (-4,000). The nondurable goods sector lost jobs in plastics and rubber products (-6,000), apparel (-4,000), and printing and related support activities (-4,000).

Purchasing Managers' Index
Manufacturing contracted again in November as the PMI registered 36.2 percent, 2.7 points lower than the 38.9 points reported in October. This is the lowest reading since May 1982 when the PMI registered 35.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit
The manufacturing trade deficit in September decreased $1.5 billion, or 2.1 percent, to $69.6 billion. Exports decreased $9.8 billion, or 8.3 percent, to $108.1 billion, and imports decreased $11.3 billion, or 6 percent, to $177.7 billion. The change in exports reflected decreases in capital goods ($4.2 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($4.1 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.1 billion); consumer goods ($0.5 billion); other goods ($0.4 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.1 billion). The change in imports reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($8.1 billion); consumer goods ($3.4 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.7 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.2 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion).

July
2008

August
2008

September
2008

74,116

-2.05

Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings
In October, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased 4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.21, seasonally adjusted. Average weekly earnings were up $1.35 (0.2 percent) to $611.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased 3.5 percent and average weekly earnings rose 2.9 percent.

Average Weekly Hours
In October, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. The manufacturing workweek was also unchanged over the month at 40.6 hours.

33.7

Manufacturers' New Orders
New orders for manufactured goods in September – down two consecutive months – decreased $11.2 billion, or 2.5 percent, to $432.0 billion. This followed a 4.3 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.7 percent. This was the largest percent decrease since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992. The durable goods sector increased $1.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, to $207.9 billion. Transportation equipment had the largest increase of $3.4 billion, or 6.5 percent, to $55.3 billion. The nondurable goods sector decreased $13.0 billion, or 5.5 percent, to $224.1 billion.

July
2008

August
2008

September
2008

431,989

Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders in September – up 31 of the last 32 months – increased $3.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $829.5 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent August increase. The durable goods sector increased $3.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $829.5 billion. Transportation equipment had the largest increase of $4.4 billion, or 0.9 percent, to $470.8 billion.

July
2008

August
2008

September
2008

0.36

Manufacturers' Inventories
Inventories in September – down following four consecutive monthly increases – decreased $4.1 billion, or 0.7 percent, to $558.7 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent August increase. The durable goods sector increased $1.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $340.3 billion. Machinery had the largest increase of $0.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, to $54.7 billion. The nondurable goods sector decreased $5.3 billion, or 2.4 percent, to $218.4 billion. Petroleum and coal products led the decrease, down $3.6 billion, or 8.3 percent, to $39.8 billion.

July
2008

August
2008

September
2008